Jokic's fourth MVP? Expert predictions for every major 2024-25 NBA award (2024)

ESPN staffAug 20, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

Which superstars will claim the NBA's biggest awards in 2024-25?

Will Nikola Jokic once again seize back-to-back MVPs, or can another big man, Joel Embiid, reclaim the coveted award?

After what was considered a down year for the 2024 NBA draft class, the expectations for this season's rookies are low. However, after a few surprising performances at summer league from Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard and Portland Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan, the race for Rookie of the Year is up for grabs.

Will reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert protect his title against a plethora of lock-down defenders, including French teammate Victor Wembanyama? Will reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault lift the Oklahoma City Thunder to another No. 1 seed in the West?

We asked our Summer Forecast panel -- a group of NBA experts, including reporters, editors and analysts -- to rank its top three choices for the NBA's six major awards, with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2024-25 NBA Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with win-loss predictions for the Eastern Conference. On Monday, we revealed our picks for the teams that will have the biggest turnaround this season and the teams that will drop off, and answered the season's biggest questions, including which superstar will request a trade next.

Who will win NBA MVP?

Superstars and basketball legends have claimed top-tier status by winning the NBA's MVP award, and this season's race is once again wide open.

Mavericks guard Luka Doncic is at the top of our rankings after a commanding performance in the 2024 NBA Finals and will look to claim his first MVP award as he enters his seventh season in the league.

Coming in second is reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, who can join a list of NBA greats in LeBron James and Michael Jordan if the Nuggets big man can claim his fourth award in five years.

Not far behind is Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who came second in last season's vote behind Jokic and could make the leap this year as the leader of a young and exciting Oklahoma City squad.

1. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: 61 points (48% of first-place votes)

2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 40 points (10%)

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 37 points (24%)

4. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 15 points (5%)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 13 points (5%)

6. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: 8 points (5%)

7. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics: 5 points (5%)

8. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 3 points

9. Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies: 2 points

Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

Victor Wembanyama ran away with the Rookie of the Year award last season, but following a draft without a consensus No. 1 pick, the race for this year's award is wide open entering the 2024-25 campaign.

Sheppard, the No. 3 pick in this year's draft, led the voting this season after a standout performance at summer league. He averaged 20.0 points, 5.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game in Las Vegas and should slot into a Rockets lineup ready for a playoff push.

A pair of big men who met in the 2024 national championship -- Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan -- finished second and third, respectively, in the voting as their rivalry hits the NBA.

1. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets: 74 points (62% of first-place votes)

2. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies: 40 points (14%)

3. Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers: 27 points (10%)

4. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs: 23 points (10%)

5. Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves: 10 points

T-6. Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards: 8 points (5%)

T-6. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks: 8 points

Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?

Jazz big man Rudy Gobert claimed his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award last season, but it's his French counterpart who ran away with the preseason vote this summer.

Wembanyama finished second in the DPOY last season as a rookie and is only trending upward. He averaged 2.0 blocks and 2.2 steals over five games while helping France to a silver medal at the 2024 Olympics after averaging 3.6 blocks per game with the Spurs last season.

Gobert and Wembanyama could be jockeying for the award all season long. Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis, meanwhile, follow the French duo on the list after impressive performances for Team USA.

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 76 points (67% of first-place votes)

2. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 29 points (5%)

3. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat: 26 points (14%)

4. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: 14 points

5. Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks: 10 points (5%)

6. Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics: 8 points (5%)

7. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers: 5 points (5%)

T-8. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors: 4 points

T-8. OG Anunoby, New York Knicks: 4 points

T-8. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 4 points

T-9. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 3 points

Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?

Last season, Malik Monk came in second to the Timberwolves' Naz Reid in the voting for Sixth Man of the Year. This season, with a revived Sacramento Kings and the addition of clutch superstar DeMar DeRozan, our panel believes Monk will finally claim that title. If the shooting guard has anywhere near the career-best season he had in 2023-24, he is a front-runner for the award.

Hot on his tail, however, is new Thunder stopper Alex Caruso, who led the Bulls last season in steals (1.7) and blocks (1.0), and joins forces with last season's No. 4 defense.

Reid ranks third in our vote, while Heat rookie standout Jaime Jaquez Jr. claims fourth in our panel's rankings.

T-1. Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings: 38 points (19% of first-place votes)

T-1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 38 points (19%)

3. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 29 points (19%)

4. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat: 18 points (10%)

5. T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers: 13 points (10%)

6. Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks: 11 points (10%)

T-7. Russell Westbrook, Denver Nuggets: 7 points

T-7. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Atlanta Hawks: 7 points

T-8. Jose Alvarado, New Orleans Pelicans: 6 points (5%)

T-8. Norman Powell, LA Clippers: 6 points (5%)

T-9. Josh Hart, New York Knicks: 5 points (5%)

T-9. Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers: 5 points

T-10. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets: 3 points

T-10. CJ McCollum, New Orleans Pelicans: 3 points

Who will win Most Improved Player?

Another category, another win for the 20-year-old Wemby. On top of being projected for his first Defensive Player of the Year award, the panel also projects Wembanyama as a favorite to win Most Improved Player in the upcoming season.

While Wembanyama received the most first-place votes, our panel has him tied with Oklahoma City's Jalen Williams, who put together a memorable sophom*ore season as the Thunder secured the Western Conference's No. 1 seed.

Chicago Bulls guard Coby White finished a point behind the pair, and received as many first-place votes as Wembanyama, while 2021 No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham finished fourth.

T-1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 26 points (14% of first-place votes)

T-1. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder: 26 points (10%)

3. Coby White, Chicago Bulls: 25 points (14%)

4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons: 22 points (14%)

5. Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets: 14 points (10%)

T-6. Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs: 12 points (5%)

T-6. Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets: 12 points (5%)

7. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers: 11 points (5%)

8. Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors: 10 points (10%)

9. Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic: 7 points

T-10. RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors: 5 points (5%)

T-10. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 5 points (5%)

T-10. Jalen Green, Houston Rockets: 5 points (5%)

Others receiving votes: Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets, Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets

Who will win Coach of the Year?

With another "Nova Knick" added to the roster, the hopes are high for New York. Coach Tom Thibodeau is once again at the helm for the Knicks and was voted as most likely to take home Coach of the Year by our Summer Forecast panel. The award would be his third, after winning with the Bulls in 2011 and the Knicks in 2021.

Both Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault and Boston's Joe Mazzulla received the same number of first-place votes as Thibodeau and rounded out the top three. In all, 10 coaches received votes for the award this season.

1. Tom Thibodeau, New York Knicks: 29 points (19% of first-place votes)

2. Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder: 24 points (19%)

3. Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics: 22 points (19%)

4. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs: 18 points (5%)

5. Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers: 16 points (14%)

6. Nick Nurse, Philadelphia 76ers: 15 points (5%)

7. Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies: 14 points (10%)

8. Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat: 13 points (5%)

9. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 12 points (5%)

10. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 8 points

Others receiving votes: Ty Lue, LA Clippers, Doc Rivers, Milwaukee Bucks, Mike Budenholzer, Phoenix Suns, Mike Brown, Sacramento Kings, Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves, Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors, Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks